CPI Inflation Rises 0.4% in October as Shelter and Food Climb

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October after a 0.6% increase in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on November 10. CPI inflation cooled from the September pace as energy slowed sharply, but shelter, food and a handful of services categories kept the monthly gain from fading further. The release also carries an unusual caveat: the bureau could not publish most 12-month changes for October, which removes the figure most people quote.

Why there is no annual rate

BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations. For most CPI series it therefore could not publish October 2025 indexes, and it cannot publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for series where that comparison month is missing. The all-items index is among them. A few series do show a 12-month change in the table, including gasoline at 37.4%, new vehicles at 0.7% and used cars and trucks at minus 3.3%, but the headline annual inflation rate is absent.

The consequence for readers is practical. Monthly changes remain fully comparable, and they are the better lens this time. Anyone comparing the October reading with the annual rate reported in earlier months should note that the bureau points to an online fact sheet on how missing data are handled.

The monthly path of CPI inflation

The seasonally adjusted all-items changes for the past seven months were 0.6% in April, 0.5% in May, minus 0.4% in June, 0.1% in July, 0.4% in August, 0.6% in September and 0.4% in October. October matches August, sits below September’s 0.6% and below the two spring readings. The swings track energy: the energy index was up 3.8% in April, 3.9% in May, down 5.7% in June, down 1.5% in July, then up 2.1%, 5.2% and 0.7%.

In October the energy index rose 0.7% after the 5.2% September jump. Gasoline rose 1.0% seasonally adjusted, after 9.1% in September, though before seasonal adjustment gasoline prices decreased 0.7%. The gap shows how much of the gasoline gain came from the seasonal factors. Electricity rose 0.9%, and the natural gas index fell 0.8%.

Food and shelter

Food rose 0.5%, after being unchanged in September. Food at home increased 0.4%, and food away from home 0.5%. Four of the six major grocery groups rose and one fell. Other food at home gained 0.7%, with snacks up 1.0%. Meats, poultry, fish and eggs rose 0.5% with beef up 0.9%. Fruits and vegetables and dairy each rose 0.6%. Nonalcoholic beverages fell 0.3% after a 0.9% rise in September, and cereals and bakery products were unchanged. Restaurant prices were firmer: full service meals rose 0.7% and limited service meals 0.4%.

Shelter rose 0.3% after 0.4% in September and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly all-items increase. Owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3% and rent 0.2%. Lodging away from home rose 0.6% after a 2.0% jump in September.

Shelter is the largest component of the index, so a 0.3% move there carries a lot of weight even when it is not unusual. The bureau’s note that it explains over thirty percent of the monthly gain is the clearest sign of that weight.

Core inflation

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3% in October, as it did in September and August. Over the seven months in the table the core path was 0.4%, 0.2%, 0.0%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.3% and 0.3%. Three consecutive 0.3% readings put the core pace steady rather than accelerating.

Within core, several services categories were firm. Recreation rose 0.8% after 0.5%. Motor vehicle insurance rose 0.7%. Transportation services rose 0.8% in the table, compared with 0.6% in September. Medical care rose 0.3% after 0.1%, with hospital services up 0.8%, physicians’ services up 0.4% and prescription drugs up 0.3%. Household furnishings and operations rose 0.2%, education 0.3% and new vehicles 0.2%. Personal care, airline fares and apparel also increased.

Goods softened in one visible place. Used cars and trucks fell 1.2% in October after rising 0.7% in September, and the communication index decreased 0.1%. These were among a small number of major indexes that declined. Core commodities rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% of September, while core services, labeled services less energy services, rose 0.3%.

Other measures

On an unadjusted basis the CPI-U reached an index level of 337.511 (1982-84 equals 100) and rose 0.2% for the month. The CPI-W, which covers urban wage earners and clerical workers, rose 0.1% to 331.147. The Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers rose 0.2% on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The bureau cautions that indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.

The gap between the seasonally adjusted 0.4% and the unadjusted 0.2% for CPI-U is the same pattern seen in gasoline: seasonal factors lifted the October figure. That matters for anyone converting monthly figures to annualized rates, because the two series answer different questions.

Reading the report

October reads as a month in which the headline cooled because energy cooled, while the rest of the basket stayed at its recent pace. Core at 0.3% for a third month, shelter at 0.3% and food at 0.5% are not signs of a sharp change in either direction. The energy swings of the past seven months account for most of the volatility in the all-items series.

The missing annual rate complicates the narrative. The annual rate is the figure most often quoted, and it is not available for October. Until the comparison base returns, analysts will lean on monthly changes, three-month annualizations and subcomponents.

What to watch

The November CPI is scheduled for Thursday, December 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The questions it will answer are whether energy continues to ease after the September spike, whether shelter holds at 0.3% or moves with the lodging swings, and whether used car prices keep falling. The bureau will also publish index title changes beginning with the January 2027 data on February 11, 2027, a small item for people who maintain data series by name.